CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 16/01 - 06Z MON 17/01 2005
ISSUED: 15/01 19:11Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Aegean and E Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

As the SW and SE European upper troughs close off into cut-off lows ... central European uper ridge is weakening ... and more of progressive upper flow pattern is establishing towards the end of the FCST period. Large SFC high expected to cover central and E Europe at the beginning of the period is progged to shift eastwards while weakening somewhat. Rather strong Aegean low is FCST to move SE and begin to fill late in the period.

DISCUSSION

...SEE TEXT area...
Instability of warm-sector air mass of Aegean low is quite meager ... with essentially neutral lapse rates and EL's on the order of 450 hPa as revealed by Saturday 12Z LGIR launch. Current thinking is that convection may deepen somewhat as cyclone deepens late on Saturday evening. On Sunday ... weak thermodynamic setup should persist ... but increasing low-level flow may locally cause sufficient shear for a shallow mesocyclone or two ... especially where low-level winds are perturbed near Isles and in coastal regions. This may promote a brief tornado and maginally severe winds ... but allover chances for severe TSTMS remain fairly low.

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